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By ALEXANDER WARD and QUINT FORGEY
President Joe Biden, center, speaks with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, right, and Israel's President Isaac Herzog at the Hall of Remembrance of the Yad Vashem Holocaust Memorial Museum in Jerusalem, Wednesday, July 13, 2022. | Debbie Hill/Pool via AP Photo
With help from Paul McLeary and Daniel Lippman
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JERUSALEM — Your host took an early-morning walk in Jerusalem today, finding a quiet but fortified city anticipating President JOE BIDEN’s imminent arrival.
The streets to the King David hotel, where Biden will stay during his three days in Israel, are lined with metal barriers and adorned with American and Israeli flags. A large tent was already set outside the hotel, with armed guards surrounding the perimeter. And while I didn’t see it firsthand, the Israeli Ministry of Defense said it constructed a “secure compound” at Ben-Gurion International Airport, ensuring Biden and Israeli leaders were protected from the moment the U.S. president stepped off Air Force One.
What struck me most this morning, though, was how the usually bustling city was at such a standstill. Yes, I woke up very early to get some tourism in and beat the heat. But even so, nearly all of the countless shops in the Old City were closed, and traffic was light. Leaving the designated press hotel — just steps from where Biden will reside — I overheard a staffer say that taxis didn’t want to commute to our area because of all the security measures in place.
The drivers aren’t alone: An Israeli official who helped me set up a meeting for tomorrow asked if it was even possible to get to my location. That’s still up in the air, as authorities locked down the streets the moment Biden landed.
Despite the logistical difficulties, Israelis are still more than happy to receive Biden. MOSHE LION, Jerusalem’s mayor, told a large gathering of reporters and local officials Tuesday that it’s always exciting when a nation’s leader visits the country. But when that guest is the American president, the occasion is even grander. The motorcade to the Yad Vashem Holocaust memorial and museum passed a sign that read “Jerusalem Welcomes President Biden.”
Beyond the pomp and circumstance, there’s policy. An Israel official said how thrilled the government is that Biden will reinforce policies put in place by former President DONALD TRUMP, namely the Abraham Accords and the recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital. “It didn’t come as a surprise, but we’re of course happy he didn’t change course,” one official said.
Despite the fanfare, it’s still not quite clear what all the fuss is about. Biden didn’t come to Jerusalem to broker peace between Israelis and Palestinians, though he emphasized Wednesday that a two-state solution remains “the best way” forward. And he’s not expected to announce some broad initiative between the U.S. and Israel, though there’ll be a new high-level dialogue on technology and a quadrilateral forum known as “I2U2” — which I’m told is not a droid but apparently some acronym for the member nations of Israel, India, the United States and the United Arab Emirates.
Biden is here because, well, he needed to visit Saudi Arabia, and it’s not a good look for an American president to show up in the Middle East and not pop into Israel. As the Economist put it sharply in a preview Tuesday, the entire visit “will be an exercise in banality.”
If I were a resident of Jerusalem — suffering through enhanced security protocols and enduring the sight of American reporters sweating profusely in my city’s streets — I’d expect much more for all the trouble.
HANDSHAKE-GATE: Biden’s trip got its first “controversy” while Air Force One was still in the sky.
National security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN told reporters that the president would restrict his handshakes while in the Middle East to protect against new Covid-19 variants. “We’re in a phase of the pandemic right now where we’re looking to increase masking, reduce contact to minimize spread. That’s the approach we’re taking,” he said.
The new policy comes at a convenient time, as Biden’s team knows the trip’s most damaging image would be one of the president pressing palms with Saudi Crown Prince MOHAMMED BIN SALMAN. The doctor’s sudden order minimizes the risk that such a picture will flash across TV screens in the coming days.
White House press secretary KARINE JEAN-PIERRE struggled to answer the press’ questions about why the famously glad-handy Biden would holster his policy-shaker.
“We always, on these trips, take precautions,” she said, even though Biden last month was flashing no-look handshakes to world leaders at the NATO summit in Madrid. It also wasn’t that long ago that the president was backslapping with Democrats before and after his State of the Union address.
Biden initially took the medical directive to heart, putting out his fist for maximum bumpage even as Israeli leaders initially opened their hands for a greeting (and as Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN was behind the president hugging counterparts). But after giving an opening address, Biden shook hands with former Israeli Prime Ministers NAFTALI BENNETT and BENJAMIN NETANYAHU on the airport tarmac. “You know I love you,” Biden reportedly told Bibi during their long embrace.
Then, at Yad Vashem, Biden couldn’t restrain himself from hugging two Holocaust survivors. From then on, it was all handshakes and touching as he signed the guest book.
You may read this, dear reader, and think “NatSec Daily is being silly.” And we admit we are — but just a little. A lot of diplomacy is the pageantry and what the president does in public moments.
Biden has, well, tipped his hand on handshakes and made it harder to snub MBS, if that was indeed the goal of the new contactless policy. We’ll be watching.
NO OIL ANNOUNCEMENT: Even though a major reason Biden came to the Middle East was to secure a greater flow of oil, Biden doesn’t plan to make an announcement during the trip, report the New York Times’ DAVID SANGER and PETER BAKER.
Per the NYT: “Sensitive to the appearance of sacrificing a principled stand on human rights for cheaper energy, the president does not plan to announce any oil deal during his stop in Jeddah. But the two sides have an understanding that Saudi Arabia will ramp up production once a current quota agreement expires in September, just in time for the fall midterm election campaign, according to current and former American officials … Saudi Arabia is expected to increase production by about 750,000 barrels a day and the United Arab Emirates would follow suit with an additional 500,000 barrels a day, for a combined 1.25 million.”
Biden still plans to make remarks on energy security and human rights while in Saudi Arabia, Sullivan told reporters Wednesday, but it appears those comments will now be a lot more general. And the lack of an announcement comes with risk, too, as Riyadh could back out of the deal if something were to go awry in the U.S.-Saudi relationship between now and September.
Just as Air Force One landed, news broke that inflation in June rose 9.1 percent higher than last year, hitting a new peak as gas prices remained high.
LATVIA KICKS RUSSIAN GAS TO CURB: While Europe struggles to figure out how to wean itself off Russian oil and gas shipments, some smaller countries are racing to get ahead of the game.
Looking at skyrocketing heating prices this winter, Latvia has already set up an economic package worth a full 1 percent of its GDP to help its citizens cover heating costs, Prime Minister KRISJANIS KARINS told our own PAUL McLEARY.
Aimed at “vulnerable households,” Karins added that it's a necessary move as the country looks to what could be a cold, and expensive, winter ahead. While Latvia has been preparing to wean itself off Russian oil and gas since a 10-year deal with Gazprom — which gave the Russian company a monopoly over the Latvian energy market — expired in 2017, Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine pushed the effort into high gear.
In 2021, the country was still importing about 90 percent of its gas and oil from Russia, and around 8 percent of its electricity. But today, “we have 0 percent Russian gas coming in, and we have no electricity trade with Russia,” the prime minister said. The country now gets about 40 percent of its energy from renewable sources, and plans to increase that over time. “You could say that we as a Baltic country, and I think that that is probably equally true of our neighbors, are already independent of Russian energy sources.”
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A message from Lockheed Martin:
Lockheed Martin, helping you outpace evolving threats by accelerating digital transformation.
At Lockheed Martin digital transformation means simulating wear-and-tear with digital twins, industry-wide experience and next-gen technologies. We do it all to help you prevent and deter emerging threats sooner and faster than ever. Learn more.
LONG-RANGE WEAPONS WORKING FOR UKRAINE: A recent strike on an air-defense system in Russian-occupied Ukraine shows how Western-provided long-range artillery helps Kyiv repel the invasion.
“The strike is the latest in a series that Ukraine has conducted against high-value targets such as ammunition depots and command posts since multiple-launch rocket systems known as Himars began arriving from the U.S. last month,” the Wall Street Journal’s ISABEL COLES and EVAN GERSHKOVICH reported. “SERHIY HAIDAI, the exiled governor of Luhansk, said strikes on Russian ammunition depots had disrupted supplies, noting an increase in the activity of Russian subversion and reconnaissance groups probing Ukrainian lines for weak spots.”
Even so, Russian forces continue to pound areas of Ukraine far from the main area of fighting in the east. “Russian troops shelled the Nikopol district of Dnipropetrovsk overnight using multiple-launch rocket systems, according to Ukrainian official VALENTYN REZNICHENKO. Since Russia took over Luhansk, it has targeted the Donetsk region, part of which is already controlled by Russia and separatist forces,” per WSJ.
‘INSIDER THREATS’ TO U.S. ELECTIONS: Our own ZACH MONTELLARO — reporting from the National Association of Secretaries of State’s summer conference — writes that U.S. election officials are confronting a wave of threats and security challenges coming from a troubling source: inside the election system itself.
In interviews, a dozen chief election administrators detailed a growing number of “insider threats” leading to attempted or successful election security breaches aided by local officials. The most prominent was in Colorado, where a county clerk was indicted for her role in facilitating unauthorized access to voting machines. But there have been similar instances elsewhere, including in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Ohio.
Beyond security breaches, other insider efforts to undermine elections have sprouted. In New Mexico last month, the board of commissioners in Otero County — a predominantly Republican county along the state’s southern border with Texas — refused to certify primary election results, citing unfounded claims about the security of voting machines that are rooted in conspiracy theories about hacked election equipment from the 2020 election.
Now, election officials fear the handful of publicly disclosed incidents over the last two years are only the start of a wave ahead of the 2022 and 2024 elections.
POTUS FACES SPYWARE PUZZLE: Strong public pressure to bring down the price of gas by strengthening ties with Saudi Arabia — plus a wish to foster peace in Israel — could force Biden to push spyware down his list of priorities when he meets foreign leaders in the Middle East, reports our own MAGGIE MILLER.
The administration has pledged to crack down on spyware companies and foreign governments that deploy it to snoop on journalists and dissidents. U.S. officials are especially concerned about spyware from Israeli company NSO Group.
A White House spokesperson declined to comment directly on whether Biden planned to address spyware during the trip. But according to JAMES LEWIS — a senior vice president at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, who has been in touch with Israeli officials ahead of the talks — the Israelis are considering bringing up their discontent with the administration’s handling of NSO Group.
The spyware issue will become even thornier when Biden travels to Saudi Arabia. United Nations experts in 2020 accused the Saudi crown prince of using spyware to compromise the phone of former Amazon CEO JEFF BEZOS. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates also allegedly used NSO Group’s Pegasus spyware to compromise the devices of close associates and family members of slain journalist JAMAL KHASHOGGI.
MISSING WEAPONS: Our friends at Morning Defense (for Pros!) note the Pentagon’s internal watchdog says in a new report that some of the tens of billions’ worth of arms approved for Ukraine are not being entered in the data system designated for tracking it all.
Concerns are growing that the unprecedented amount of funding to help Kyiv fend off the Russian invasion could be prone to fraud or diverted.
The DoD inspector general found that the Pentagon has been using systems that “are not able to directly feed into” the Advanced Analytics database that the top budget official directed in March be “the authoritative and only source for reporting the Ukraine supplemental funding.”
That “could limit the transparency of the execution of the Ukraine supplemental funds,” the IG warned.
FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — BILL TAKES AIM AT ECONOMIC BULLIES: Sens. TODD YOUNG (R-Ind.) and CHRIS COONS (D-Del.) have introduced the “Countering Economic Coercion Act” to help safeguard and support U.S. allies with smaller economies that are facing financial pressure and punishment from China, Russia, and other foreign adversaries.
Specifically, the measure would provide the president with authorities to “decrease duties or modify quotas on imports from the foreign partner to make up for lost exports to other nations due to coercive actions; expedite export licensing decisions and regulatory processes to facilitate trade; seek appropriations to support foreign aid, export financing, and sovereign loan guarantees; and waive certain policy requirements to facilitate export financing.”
Young said in a statement that the bill “will provide the flexibility to help our foreign partners on an expedited basis when they are targeted for standing up to authoritarian regimes. By supporting our partners under threat, we protect America’s own national security interests.”
Coons added in his own statement: “Providing targeted support to allies and partners struggling with the impacts of economic coercion will not only help bolster their own resilience against these actions, but it will also help safeguard American economic and security interests.”
NDAA MADNESS: The House will dive into its defense bill along with a whopping 650 amendments any minute now. Lawmakers will likely debate and vote well into the evening Thursday.
Here’s a look at some of the major amendments that will see action:
Topline: The House will vote on a pair of proposals to trim the bill’s topline from progressives BARBARA LEE (D-Calif.) and MARK POCAN (D-Wis.).
One amendment would reverse the $37 billion topline increase approved by HASC last month, reverting the bill to the Biden administration’s proposed topline. Another would exact a $100 billion cut to the Pentagon budget from the current level.
F-16s to Turkey: Lawmakers will debate a bipartisan amendment that would spoil plans to sell F-16 fighters to Turkey, which the Biden administration backs. The proposal, spearheaded by Rep. CHRIS PAPPAS (D-N.H.), would bar selling the jets to Ankara unless the administration certifies it is in the U.S. national security interest and that the planes won’t be used to violate Greek airspace.
LCS: HASC Chair ADAM SMITH’s (D-Wash.) proposal to allow the Navy to retire all nine littoral combat ships it’s seeking to scrap will get a vote. HASC voted in June to require the Navy to keep five of the hulls.
F-35: Also set for a vote is an amendment from Reps. MARC VEASEY (D-Texas), MIKE TURNER (R-Ohio) and JOHN LARSON (D-Conn.) to fund three more Navy F-35C fighters, at a cost of $354 million. All three lawmakers are co-chairs of the Joint Strike Fighter Caucus.
War powers: Lawmakers will also consider several efforts to scrub outdated presidential war powers — including Lee’s amendment to repeal the 2002 Iraq War authorization and bipartisan amendments to rescind the 1991 Gulf War resolution and a never-used 1957 authorization for military action in the Middle East.
UFOs: An amendment from Reps. MIKE GALLAGHER (R-Wis.) and RUBEN GALLEGO (D-Ariz.) to establish a secure system for reporting incidents related to unidentified aerial phenomena is also up for debate.
The non-defense stuff: The SAFE Banking Act by Rep. ED PERLMUTTER (D-Colo.) to allow cannabis businesses access to the banking system. The proposal was tacked onto the NDAA last year, but was killed in negotiations with the Senate.
A bipartisan proposal from Reps. MIKIE SHERRILL (D-N.J.), Democratic Caucus Chair HAKEEM JEFFRIES (D-N.Y.) and others would eliminate the sentencing disparity for drug offenses involving powder and crack cocaine.
Another amendment from Rep. VIRGINIA FOXX (R-N.C.) would create an inspector general for the White House Office of Management and Budget.
SRI LANKAN PRESIDENT FORCIBLY RESIGNS: GOTABAYA RAJAPAKSA, Sri Lanka’s embattled president, fled the island nation on a military jet today for the Maldives, making Prime Minister RANIL WICKREMESINGHE the acting president, per the Associated Press’ KRISHAN FRANCIS and KRUTIKA PATHI.
Rajapaksa’s departure came hours before he had promised to resign after facing massive demonstrations provoked by a months-long economic disaster. Following Wickremesinghe’s anticipated appointment, thousands of protesters rallied outside his office, with dozens more inside and atop the breached compound. Protesters have already seized the president’s home and office, overrun the prime minister’s official residence, and burned Wickremesinghe’s private home.
Adding to the confusion, Rajapaksa still hasn’t officially resigned, although the speaker of Sri Lanka’s parliament said the president assured him he would later today. Wickremesinghe declared a state of emergency amid the chaos, while security forces appeared to give up on their efforts to disperse the crowds.
— GORDON JOHNDROE is joining American Airlines as managing director of communications. He most recently was vice president of global media relations and public affairs at Boeing.
— LLOYD THRALL is joining Catalina Associates as a senior consultant on DOD 5G. He’ll remain in his role as a Scocwoft senior fellow at the U.S. Air Force Academy.
— ERIKA SOLOMON, The New York Times: “History Haunts Ukraine’s Undiplomatic Voice in Berlin”
— MICHAEL ABRAMOWITZ and YANA GOROKHOVSKAIA, POLITICO Magazine: “Opinion: It’s Not Just Khashoggi: The Saudi Issue Biden Can’t Ignore”
— CATHERINE BELTON, The Washington Post: “The Man Who Has Putin’s Ear — and May Want His Job”
— In Jerusalem, Biden will meet with Israeli Prime Minister YAIR LAPID, President ISAAC HERZOG and former Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU. He’ll participate in the first meeting of the “I2U2” group, joined by the leaders of Israel, India and the United Arab Emirates. He’ll also receive the Israeli Presidential Medal of Honor and greet U.S. athletes at the opening ceremonies of the Maccabiah Games.
— House Foreign Affairs Committee, 10 a.m.: “Subcommittee Hearing: Examining the Realities of Russian Activities and Influence in Africa and Its Effects on the Continent — with FONTEH AKUM, MVEMBA PHEZO DIZOLELE, CANDACE RONDEAUX, NATE SIBLEY and JOSEPH SIEGLE”
— House Homeland Security Committee, 10 a.m.: “Subcommittee Hearing: Taking the Helm: The Commandant’s Vision for the U.S. Coast Guard — with LINDA FAGAN”
— Nozomi Networks, 11 a.m.: “Building a Cyber Fortress: Preparedness and Resilience in Critical Infrastructure — with MARK BRISTOW, MICHAEL DRANSFIELD, HOWARD GRIMES, DANIELLE JABLANSKI, PUESH KUMAR and MEGAN SAMFORD”
— House Foreign Affairs Committee, 12:30 p.m.: “Subcommittee Briefing: Truth and Accountability for Victims of the Troubles in Northern Ireland — with ANNA BRYSON and MARK THOMPSON”
— The Brookings Institution, 2 p.m.: “The National Defense Strategy and Great Power Competition: A Conversation with MARK ESPER — with MICHAEL E. O’HANLON”
Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot us an email at [email protected] or [email protected] to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter.
And thanks to our editor, Ben Pauker, who minimizes handshake-based scandals by refusing to acknowledge other people exist.
A message from Lockheed Martin:
Lockheed Martin, helping you outpace evolving threats by accelerating digital transformation.
At Lockheed Martin digital transformation means simulating wear-and-tear with digital twins, industry-wide experience and next-gen technologies. We do it all to help you prevent and deter emerging threats sooner and faster than ever. Learn more.